Good news is the jackhammer hit even though we had to sweat it out! Teasers were good but the straight plays were absolute dog shit. Sometimes when I’m watching games I literally can feel the higher power controlling the games. Missed extra point from the Patriots and they win by 6 when the spread was 6.5-7 on different books. The Cowboys lost without even allowing a touchdown but even if they were able to get in field goal range and kick a game winner last night they would have won 13-12 and not cover the -2.5 spread that 67% of the public bet on. I haven’t looked at the spreads for next week but I might go a full Sunday with all teasers. Some of the results of the straight plays have been so frustrating to deal with. We are here to win and find value in doing so. Going 0-3 on straight plays has no value at all. We have a small slate tonight but we have MLB Playoffs and the NHL regular season starting up this week. Let’s see which way we are going to go in what could be the worst football game of the year.
Bengals (+9) / Over (39.5) – Ok, here’s my analysis for tonight’s game – I’m teasing the Bengals to +9 and the Over to 39.5 because 56% of the public are on the Steelers to cover the spread and 51% of the public are on the under. 50% sarcasm, 50% seriousness. Both of these teams are looking to avoid an 0-4 start. The record hasn’t been pretty for the Bengals but one unexpected stat is that coming into Week 4, Andy Dalton ranked 2nd in the league in passing yards and that has been without injured Wideout A.J. Green. Dalton should be successful throwing on this Steelers defense tonight who ranks #30 in the league and has allowed 306 passing yards per game. I really like the sound of that and I’ll take a 9 point cushion for a team that I expect to get whatever they want through the air. As for the teased over, both of these defenses have allowed 28 points per game this season. The Steelers have been really bad against the pass and the Bengals have been really bad against the run. I’m confident that we can get 20 points a side tonight. I’ll be playing the teaser and that’s the official pick for this game but I don’t think Bengals moneyline at +155 is a bad play.
Andy Dalton Total Passing Yards Over (260.5) – As mentioned in the write up above, the Steelers pass defense ranks #30th in the league and they have allowed an average of 306 passing yards per game this season. Dalton has been putting up numbers through the air and he came in to Week 4 ranked #2 in the league in passing yards. He’s averaged 326 passing yards per game and two of his games came against defenses who rank in the Top 10 against the pass (Buffalo & San Francisco). I’m liking this over against a Steelers D who have allowed 277, 300, & 341 passing yards in each of their three games.
Two plays tonight but we will have plenty of action to make up for it later this week with playoff baseball, NHL, and more football.