We had another entertaining night of UFC fights on Saturday with Cynthia Calvillo winning by unanimous decision. Our UFC picks and predictions went 2-2 on the night but we still came out profitable. Let’s take a look back at each one of our UFC picks from Saturday and review the Eye vs Calvillo results.
3 Fight Parlay:
Andre Fili ML / Merab Dvalishvili ML / Mariya Agapova (+154)
We have three favorites here and I don’t see how this parlay loses tonight. We start off with Andre Fili who has a 2 inch height advantage and a 5 inch reach advantage over his opponent Charles Jourdain. Fili is much better when it comes to defense and Charles Jourdain absorbs about 1 more significant strike per minute than Fili. Fili is the more rounded fighter and I think he is going to win this fight.
Then we have HEAVY favorite Merab Dvalishvili who is the second biggest favorite on the card tonight. He will take on 4-3Gustavo Lopez who just took this fight this week. Dvalishvili has been hotter and comes in winning 3 straight. Gustavo Lopez is coming off of a title fight win but he has lost 2 of his last 3. Ride the favorite with Merab.
The third leg of this parlay is Mariya Agapova. She has a 7 inch height advantage and will be fighting Hannah Cifers who just fought two weeks ago from tonight. Cifers has lost 2 straight and her second to last fight ended with her taking 26 straight blows to the face. Agapova should dominate this fight. I’m feeling pretty good about this 3 fight parlay with the 3 big favorites to come through for us.
WINNER – this one went like we expected it would and it was a nice payout at (+154). Merab Dvalishvili started things off with a win by unanimous decision. Mariya Agapova just had too much of an advantage over Hannah Cifers and she ended that fight in the first round. We also hit a round prop bet on this fight. It came down to Andre Fili who won by split decision to close this UFC parlay out for us.
2 Fight Parlay:
Julia Avila ML / Kevin Aguilar ML (-129)
Julia Avila comes in as a huge favorite and rightfully so. She is 7-1 in her career and has won 4 of her last 5 fights. Avila has a 1 inch height advantage on Mazany. Mazany comes in 6-3 and she has lost 3 of her last 5 fights. She fought Macy Chiasson who is 7-1 last year and got knocked out in the first round. Julia is capable of hitting Mazany with another knockout in this one. No matter how the match is decided, I don’t see anyways that Julia Avila doesn’t win this fight.
Kevin Aguilar is the better fighter in this fight. This fight was moved up from the prelims to the Main Card due to some last minute shuffles. Aguilar is coming off of 2 straight losses but he started his career 17-1 before that. I love the fact that 58% of Aguilar’s wins have come via knockout. Aguilar gives up 2 inches in height but he has a 4 inch reach advantage. Rosa has lost 3 of his last 5 fights. He will be looking to get this one on the ground but Aguilar has great take down defense at 86%. This fight should stay upright and Aguilar should come away victorious for us!
LOSER – Julia Avila came out and took care of business right away by knocking out Ginza Mazany in 22 seconds. That one was easy. Then we just needed Kevin Aguilar to come through for us. He fought a tough fight but when this one went to the judges, he took the L and we dropped this parlay.
Individual Fight Round Prop
Mariya Agapova / Hannah Cifers Under 2.5 rounds (+140)
Hannah Cifers will be fighting for the second time in three weeks tonight and she will be taking on Mariya Agapova. Hannah will be calling her Mariya the giants tonight because Mariya has a 7 inch height advantage over Hannah. Mariya’s last three wins have come in the first round and 6 of her 8 wins have come in the 1st or 2ns round. Hannah’s last two losses and 4 of her 5 career losses have come in the 1st or 2nd round. There is great value in under 2.5 rounds for this fight based off of these trends.
Eye vs Calvillo results – WINNER – We expected Mariya Agapova to use her size advantage to end this fight early. She did exactly that when she got Hannah Cifers in a choke hold 2:42 into the first round. I was shocked at how we were getting (+140) odds for this round prop bet but we will take it.
10 Fight Parlay:
We also gave out this 10 fight parlay which are always tough to hit. All hope for this one actually ended pretty quickly with the first fight losing. We lost this long shot parlay but our picks for the parlay wen 8-2. A lot of sports bettors played smaller parlays with the information that we provided for each fight. Here’s a look back at what we liked going into last night.
There have been some last minute changes and shuffling to the UFC schedule for tonight but let’s take a look at a 10 fight parlay. Obviously 10 leg parlays are tougher to hit than smaller ones but let’s take a shot. Here’s a look at trends from each fight that I’m liking for tonight.
Anthony Ivy – He’s 8-2 taking on his 13-6 opponent. Ivy has a 5 inch height advantage and a 2 inch reach advantage. His opponent is basically named after singer Christina Aguilara but his face will not be “beautiful” after this fight. 5 of Ivy’s 8 wins have come via knockout and I’m expecting another one tonight.
Tyson Nam – He has a 2 inch height advantage and a 3 inch reach advantage. The big thing in this one is that his opponent recently changed and he will be taking on a guy who’s last three fight’s came against three fighters who were fighting their first career fight. I like Tyson Nam and his 18-11 experience to get him this win.
Julia Avila – 7-1 career record and winning 4 of her last 5, she will take on 6-3 Gina Mazany who has lost 3 of her last 5 and 2 of those losses came in the first round.
Merab Dvalishvili – He’s the biggest favorite on the card for a reason tonight. We have multiple plays with Merab involved and I don’t see him losing this fight. He will look to get Gustavo on the ground early for a win by submission.
Mariya Agapova – 5 inch height advantage and 6 inch reach advantage. Funny her height has changed on ESPN since earlier in the week but still over sized giant in comparison to her opponent Hannah Cifers. Cifers will be fighting for the second time in three weeks and her last 2 losses came in the first or second round.
Jordan Espinosa – Espinosa lands 4.25 significant strikes per minute in comparison to De La Rosa’s 3.28. Both fighters are coming in on losing streaks. I’m riding with Espinosa in this one because he is the more aggressive fighter.
Andre Fili – Another big favorite for good reason. Fili has the 2 inch height advantage and 5 inch reach advantage. He’s a balanced fighter who can knock you out or beat you on the ground. He has won 3 of his last 5 fights. Charles Jourdain comes in 10-2 with a perfect 7-0 record in fights decided by knockout and 3-0 in fights decided by submission. This fight will be closer than the oddsmakers think. In the end, I think Fili’s experience will get him the win but I’m completely torn on how this one will end.
Kevin Aguilar – Kevin Aguilar is the better fighter in this fight. This fight was moved up from the prelims to the Main Card due to some last minute shuffles. Aguilar is coming off of 2 straight losses but he started his career 17-1 before that. I love the fact that 58% of Aguilar’s wins have come via knockout. Aguilar gives up 2 inches in height but he has a 4 inch reach advantage. Rosa has lost 3 of his last 5 fights. He will be looking to get this one on the ground but Aguilar has great take down defense at 86%. This fight should stay upright and Aguilar should come away victorious for us!
Marvin Vettori – I’ll be honest, I wanted to go with the underdog at first glance but I just can’t do it. Vettori lands 4.05 significant strikes per minute compared to Roberson’s 3.16. Vettori is also better on the ground where I expect this fight to end up. His perfect 8-0 record in fights decided by submission should come into play in this fight tonight.
Cynthia Calvillo – The Main Event looks to be a good one but I’m rolling with the fighter who has won 80% of her career fights. Calvillo also lands more significant strikes per minute at 4.12 in comparison to Eye at 3.79. Calvillo also has the advantage when it comes to take downs at 1.83 to .46. The odds point to this one going the distance but I feel like Calvillo has multiple advantages in this one.
Our picks went just 2-2 last night but it was still a profitable night for us with the (+154) parlay hitting and the (+140) round prop bet hitting. Our 10 fight parlay missed but our picks still went 8-2 on it. It was another successful UFC Fight night for us and we will be back in action on Saturday! Be sure to check in to our Daily Picks page for next weeks’ picks.
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