Seahawks (-125) – The Seahawks jumped out to a 24-0 lead against the Falcons last year before the Falcons made a strong comeback but came up just short when Seattle went on to win 27-20. Russell Wilson enters the season with one of his best supporting casts yet. Lockett, Metcalf, Dorsett, Gordon, Olsen, Carson, & Hyde. The key to the Seahawks making a SuperBowl run this season is to be aggressive early. Seattle is 57-0 when leading by 4+ at halftime since 2012. The weak link of this Falcons team is their secondary with a group of young guys. Look for Wilson to be aggressive against them early today. The Seahawks also made a few big additions on defense in the offseason with Jamal Adams, Quinton Dunbar, & first round draft pick Jordyn Brooks. Seahawks won IN Atlanta last season and I think they will again today.
Result – Winner – Seahawks 38 Falcons 25 – We expected the Seahawks to be aggressive in this game and take advantage of the young secondary of the Falcons. That’s exactly what Russell Wilson did when we went 31-35 and threw for 4 touchdowns. This was a comfortable win even though the game was close are certain points.
Bills (-0.5) / Packers (+8.5) – Lots of hype around this Bills team this year after finishing 10-6 last season and making the playoffs. The strength will be the defense again who held opponents to 16.5 points per game last season which ranked #2 in the league. However, the offense should take a step forward after adding Stefon Diggs in the offseason. Devin Singletary will be another key piece to watch as he will start the season healthy after getting a late start to his rookie year a season ago. The Bills went 1-1 against the Jets last year but the loss came in the last week of the season. Bills mafia won’t be allowed in the stadium but the Bills should open up with a win at home against this Jets team.
The Packers are underdogs so we can tease them up to 8.5 here. Green Bay beat Minnesota twice last season with final scores of 21-16 and 23-10. We teased the Packers to +10.5 in that most recent game and they won outright 23-10. The Packers have covered +8.5 in 8 out of their last 10 games against the Vikings so that’s a nice 80% trend. Let’s not forget that this Packers team went 13-3 last season before falling to the 49ers and 4 rushing touchdowns by Raheem Mostert in the playoffs. Minnesota will only have 5 starters from last year’s defense today and all 6 cornerbacks are 23 years old or younger. Rodgers will turn 37 this year but he can still sling it and he should attack the young secondary. +8.5 should be stealing money.
Result – Winner – Bills 27 Jets 17 and Packers 43 Vikings 34 – Talk about a no stress winner. We didn’t end up needing to even tease these two since they both covered the spread but it’s never a bad idea to be safe than sorry. If the books want to allow us to take a team at +8.5 and that team goes on to win 43-34 essentially covering the spread by 17.5, I’m completely fine with that. PAY ME. Bills are simply a better team than the Jets and Aaron Rodgers can still fucking sling it.
Patriots (-1) / Ravens (-1.5) – Cam Newton will make his debut with the Patriots today and he seems to be a man on a mission. He has received high praise from Coach Belichick throughout training camp for his work ethic. It will be interesting to see what he can do with this offense but the oddsmakers must expect good things with the Pats team total at 24.5 today. The Pats defense will be without some key players who contributed to last year’s league leading defense. The secondary and line should still be one of the best in the league but there are some questions to be answered at linebacker. It’s a good thing this Dolphins defense ranked dead last in points allowed per game last season at 30.9. Cam will get to get the show started against a defense who figures to struggle again this year. Pats should cover the teaser at -1.
The Ravens went 14-2 in the regular season last year before losing to the Titans in their first playoff game. They open up against the Browns today who people from Cleveland will tell you will “make the playoffs this year” but we heard that last year too and they finished 6-10. They did hand the Ravens 1 of their 2 losses last year but the Ravens beat them 31-15 in the most recent matchup. Lamar Jackson threw for 3 TD and rushed for 100+ yards. Jackson and the rest of the Ravens offense will be tough to stop again this season. Don’t forget the Baltimore defense ranked #3 last season holding opponents to 18.2 points per game. I like the Ravens to open up with a win here.
Result – Winner – Patrios 21 Dolphins 11 and Ravens 38 Browns 6 – The Patriots game was closer than it should have been. They fumbled on the 1 yard line at one point where they could have taken a 21-3 lead. Cam Newton showed up and ran for 2 touchdowns in his Patriots debut. The question marks at the linebacker position allowed the Dolphins to put together their one touchdown drive as expected. The Ravens took control of their game right from the start and beat the shit out of the Browns. In the air, on the ground, the Ravens offense was clicking on all cylinders en route to the 32 point win. This was easy money.
Over / Under
Bucs / Saints Over (48) – Both of the head to head matchups between these two teams went over 48 last season with total scores of 51 and 55. That was when it was Teddy Bridgewater vs Jameis Winston and Drew Brees against Jameis Winston. It’s Drew Brees against Tom Brady today. This is America’s Game of the Week and rightfully so. Both teams are loaded and will compete for the NFC South Title all season. Both of these offenses averaged 28 points per game last season and the Bucs have upgraded the QB position with the best to ever do it. I’m expecting fireworks from both sides in this game and it should go over 48.
Result – Winner – Saints 34 Bucs 23 – Tom Brady got the scoring started early when he ran for a touchdown on the Bucs opening drive. He then threw for three more touchdown passes on the day – 2 to the Bucs and 1 to the Saints. The Saints offense looked good and racked up the points to cover this over for us.
Desperation parlay to close a tough week:
Result – Loser – Can’t trust Philly, can’t trust Indy, and not sure what’s up with the Clippers.
With yesterday’s results, that now puts our NFL straight plays at 6-2 to start the season. We will be getting right back into it tonight with 3 picks for the Monday Night double header. You can get today’s picks for just $10 by DMing @kofsports on twitter/instagram or you can get a long term membership by signing up HERE.