Both of these teams are coming off of blow out wins in their first games of the season. Toledo beat Bowling Green 38-3 and Western Michigan beat 58-13. Looking at those games, it’s easy to think that both Toledo and Western Michigan have REALLY good offenses and REALLY good defenses. However, those numbers are skewed a bit since we saw both Bowling Green and Akron lose in ugly fashion again last night.
Toledo won the last three matchups and last seasons’ win came with a final score of 31-24 in a game that was a rare one possession game in this series. Looking back at the last ten head to head matchups, only 3 of those 10 games have been decided by one touchdown or less. Each team has had their ups and downs in this series. A better trend from previous matchups is that 6 of the last 10 have gone over the total of 58.5 which is the line for tonight’s matchup.
The key to this matchup tonight is the strength of Toledo’s offensive line and running game going up against the Western Michigan defense that has struggled to stop the run. Toledo ran for 275 yards against Western Michigan in this matchup last season. Western Michigan allowed an average of 186 yards on the ground last season. That running game should be a huge part of Toledo’s attack tonight with temps in the low 30s.
Western Michigan will be able to score some points as well, this Toledo defense is not as good as their 3 points per game average through one game this season shows. I just think that they are good enough to come up with a stop or two down the stretch that’s the difference in this game. I like Toledo to win in another close one as slight underdogs at +110 tonight.