Happy Thanksgiving to all! I’m going to get corny real quick. 5 years ago I had a DREAM to share my passion and knowledge of sports betting with people across the world. 5 years later, I am SO thankful for where KofSports is at and I am truly grateful for all of the friendships I have made with you guys. From you long term OG guys who have been here since the start and even you newer guys who have recently become part of the community. THANK YOU! Enjoy quality time with friends and family today. Our T-Day Tradition here is to rank our picks by assigning a specific type of food to each pick to show our confidence. Let’s EAT today!
Turkey Leg – Don’t be intimidated, grab the turkey leg because it’s still on the table.
Texans (-3) – The Texans have gone 3-3 since head coach Bill O’Brien was fired a month ago and they have looked good in those wins. It can be argued that those wins came against bad teams but they will be playing another bad team today. The Lions lost 20-0 to a Panthers team that was without their starting QB and Pro Bowl RB who had also lost 5 straight. The weakness of the Texans is their run defense but the Lions and old man Peterson have struggled running the ball this season ranking 29th in rushing offense. The Texans running game hasn’t been good either but Deshaun Watson has been good. Over Watson’s last 5 games, he has thrown 11 TDs, 0 int, and completed 71% of his throws. He’s coming off of a 344 yards & 3 touchdown game last week. In a battle of teams below .500, the Texans have been playing better as of late. The Lions have lost 3 of their last 4 and all 3 losses came by multiple scores. Let’s go with Watson to have a big game, lead the Texans to victory, & then eat that big Turkey leg on the CBS post game show.
Stuffing – A nice side to the main course and Deshaun is going to pile it up with this one!
Deshaun Watson Total Passing Yards Over (293.5) – Watson is coming off of a game where he threw for 344 and he has gone over 293 in 5 of his last 7 games. The Lions let Alex Smith throw for 390 on them two weeks ago and Matt Ryan threw for 338 on them a few weeks before that! Watson should have himself a day against this 25th ranked Lions pass defense.
Mashed Potatoes – It’s a must have with every Turkey Day meal and always offers good value for your belly. This player prop is a must have and offers good value at plus money.
Will Fuller To Score a Touchdown (+120) – We are 2 for 2 on player to score touchdown props since last Thursday and going for our 3rd straight in this game today. Fulmer has scored in 6 of his last 7 games that weren’t played in 30+ mph winds, fair stat. We are expecting a big game from Watson and Fuller will be a big part of that. Look for him to get in the end zone atleast once.
Washington (+9) / Washington / Cowboys Over (40) – Washington beat the Cowboys 25-3 a month ago and that was an UGLY game for the Cowboys. Andy Dalton was held to 75 passing yards and Zeke was held to 45 rushing yards. We expect the Cowboys to be better than that today, at least a little bit anyway. If they are able to somehow win, don’t count on them winning by more than 9, their 3 wins have come by a combined 7 points total this season. If I was picking straight up, I’d lean Washington but I’d rather take them on a teaser at +9 to increase our chances of winning. Washington has covered +9 in each of their last 5 games and don’t forget they didn’t have any trouble dominating this Cowboys team a month ago.
As for the over portion of the teaser, Washington has scored 20+ points in each of their last 4 games and they will be going against the Cowboys defense that has been the worst in the league allowing 31.8 ppg. Washington scored 25 on the Cowboys a month ago. Cowboys and points have been polar opposites since they lost Dak until last week when they scored 31 against the Vikings. Andy Dalton threw 3 TDs in that game. Washington has allowed 20+ in 7 of their 10 games this season. Over 40 seems likely in this one as long as the Cowboys don’t fall on their faces again.
Apple Pie – Following the main course with this one that looks to be pretty sweet at an 80% trend.
Amari Cooper Total Receptions Over (4.5) – Here’s a trend for you, Cooper has gone over 4.5 receptions in 80% of the games that Andy Dalton has started this season including 7 against this same Washington team a month ago. Cooper actually caught 7 of Dalton’s 9 completions in that game so who made who? Regardless, it’s a trend that can’t be ignored at 80%. Cooper has been targeted 7+ times in 4 of those 5 games as well. Coming off of a game where Dalton threw the ball 32 times and the Cowboys actually won, the Cowboys should be looking to throw the ball again today. All we need is Cooper to come up with 5 catches like he has done in 4 of the 5 games he’s played with Dalton.