3-2 winning day yesterday but it could have been bigger if the Seahawks and Chiefs showed up to play. We have a Monday Night Football double header tonight so let’s get right into it.
Steelers (-0.5) / Bills (+7) – The Steelers continue their pursuit for perfection tonight against the 4-7 team from Washington. The Steelers come in with the #1 ranked defense in the league allowing just 17 ppg. They did lose Bud Dupree to a torn ACL but this defense is still loaded. Washington RB Antonio Gibson has been tearing it up as of late but today will be tough against this Steelers defense that’s held their opponents to just over 100 rushing yards per game. On the flip side, the Steelers will need to be better in the Red Zone this week compared to last week. They also need to get their running game going with back up RB Benny Snell. Another factor is that Washington hasn’t played since Thanksgiving and the Steelers are on a short week after playing last Wednesday. I think this game will be closer than most think but the Steelers just have more talent. Pittsburgh won’t go undefeated but their first loss of the season isn’t coming to Washington tonight.
8-3 Buffalo will meet up with the 5-6 49ers in Arizona to play the prime time game tonight. The Niners are coming off of a gritty win against a good Rams team but they are still just 2-4 with Nick Mullens at QB. Mullens has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in those games. The Bills defense ranks #4 with 8 interceptions so they should be able to come up with one against Mullens. Josh Allen has thrown 22 TDs to 8 INTs this season but this 49ers defense will be a tough matchup for him tonight. He will need to be smart and make plays with his legs to avoid forcing throws against them because they lead the league with 10 interceptions. The Bills return to the stadium where they suffered a last second loss on a Hail Mary a couple weeks ago but Nick Mullens won’t be rolling out and throwing across his body for a 43 yard game winner as time expires tonight. Buffalo feels like an under the radar 8-3 and I’ll take them teased up to +7 against the Nick Mullens led 49ers.
Eric Ebron Total Receptions Over (3.5) – We took Ebron’s receiving yards prop last week and it hit 1 minute into the 2nd quarter. The books are giving us 3.5 total receptions for him tonight and it looks like a steal. Ebron has been targeted 5 or more times in 9 of his 11 games this season. He was targeted 11 times last week and 7 times the week before that. This one could very well be another player prop that hits in the first half for us.
Deebo Samuel Total Receptions Over (4.5) – Deebo was back in action in a big way last week after missing a month due to injury. He had 11 catches for 133 yards. Mullens should be targeting him again tonight and he should go over 4.5 receptions for us. This one has some juice on it depending on what SportsBook you’re betting on but that’s because he had 11 fucking receptions on 13 targets last week.
Raheem Mostert Total Rushing Yards Over (56.5) – Mostert came back last week after a month off due to an ankle sprain but he looked good against a tough Rams run defense (#3 ranked). He will face the Bills #24 ranked run defense tonight who have allowed an average of 129 rushing yards per game. Mostert has run for 56 or more yards in 4 of his 5 games this season. He led the Niners with 16 carries last week so there are no concerns about him being eased back in from his injury.