Well that could have gone better. Bama gives up a late TD to not cover. Should have taken the over for a million. Davante didn’t score?? Wtf? On to NFL Sunday.
Bucs (-0.5) / Seahawks (-0.5) – With a win, Brady can make the Falcons record 28-34 since he beat them 34-28 after 28-3. What else is there to say? The Bucs put together a good looking win last week after two losses to two really good teams before that. I’d expect a big game from Brady against the Falcons passing defense that has allowed just about 300 yards per game. The Bucs are 6-1 against teams with losing records so they should take care of business today. Then we have the 9-4 Seahawks playing the 6-7 WFT…the Seahawks have averaged more than a touchdown more per game than WFT on offense. WFT has won 4 in a row but QB Alex Smith will be out with an injury today. The Seahawks are 3-1 in road games on the East Coast and I expect them to get another win today against a lesser WFT.
Ravens ML / Seahawks ML / Bucs ML / Titans ML / Colts ML (+207) – We hit our big moneyline parlay yesterday that paid +232 and we go for another 2 to 1 payout with this one today. The Ravens are going to beat up on the 1-12 Jaguars. The Seahawks have won 3 of their last 4 and will play a WFT team with a backup QB. The Bucs will play a bad Falcons team. The Titans will host a Lions team that has lost 3 of their last 4. The Colts will host the Texans who they only beat by 6 two weeks ago but the Texans are coming off of a game where they lost 36-7.
Ravens (-6.5) / Titans (-3) – The Ravens will face the Jaguars who have lost 12 games in a row and they are coming off of a game where they lost 31-10 and gave up 249 rushing yards to the Titans. The Ravens ran for 231 yards in their last game against the Browns including 124 for Lamar Jackson. As long as Lamar doesn’t have to go back to the locker room with “cramps” in the second half again, the Ravens should win BIG today. The Titans have won 3 of their last 4 and seem to have recovered from the mid season Covid ordeal they had. The Lions are just 2-5 in their last 7 games and they are 0-4 against projected playoff teams. The Lions also have the #28 ranked run defense so there’s no chance the slow down Derrick Henry who has ran for 100+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games. Titan up!
Chiefs (-2.5) – Could this be a Super Bowl preview? Maybe. But if it is then Drew Brees will be more in sync than he will be today after missing 4 games with broken ribs and a punctured lung. Brees will also be without his top receiver Michael Thomas who was placed on the IR. The Saints defense has been good but no one has slowed down this Chiefs offense this season. 31 ppg has been good enough 12 out of 13 times this season. The Saints really struggled to slow down duel threat QB Jalen Hurts in last week’s loss. Now they face the tall task of facing Patrick Mahomes & his 33 TD passes this season. Let’s take the Chiefs to keep their perfect road record today.
Tyreek Hill To Score a Touchdown (-130) – Hill has scored a touchdown in 10 of his 13 games this season and don’t forget the game he clearly scored but they didn’t count it. We have taken this prop and won multiple times already this season and I love how the books keep offering it at -130 odds. That’s great value! I like the chances of Hill getting in the end zone again today.
Giants (+7) – Buy the half point to get the G Men at +7 at home tonight. The Browns are 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 road games as a favorite. The Giants had a let down game last week but that was coming off of a big win over the Seahawks. Colt McCoy started that game against the Seahawks and he will start again tonight. It’s not like he will light up this Browns defense but McCoy is a game manager. This Giants defense has held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 20 or less points including that Seahawks game. The G Men have the #7 ranked run defense so they should be able to slow down the Chubb/Hunt Cleveland combo. Look for New York to keep this one close and even have a chance to win this one outright but let’s buy the half point and take them at +7 tonight.