I love it. 3-0 Friday. 7-0 last two days. 14-2 this week. KOOOOOFSPORTS!! Flyers over hit in the 1st period, Lightning cover late, & the NBA parlay had us sweating a bit but it was the other LA team that had us sweating. Let’s roll it and stay hot today for the NFL Playoffs and of course it’s time for a HEAT check parlay!! LFG.
Packers (-0.5) / Ravens / Bills Over (42.5) – The Packers are one of the hottest teams in the league and they own a 7-1 record at home this season. It will be the best offense vs the best defense. The Packers scored 30+ on the Saints and Colts who were the #3 & #11 ranked defenses. The Rams D allowed 35 to the Bills earlier this season who were the best offense they faced, until today. Also the QB situation with the Rams is questionable. Goff is talking the talk but he completed just 47% of his passes last week after coming in. Rodgers won’t throw a backwards pick 6 to this Rams defense like Russell did last week. The Pack offense will also be LA’s biggest challenge yet. I like Green Bay at home.
Then we have the Bills/Ravens going head to head in Buffalo. The Bills have averaged 39 ppg and the Ravens have averaged 34 ppg over their last 5. Both defenses have scars from the regular season. The Bills gave up 32, 42, & 34 and the Ravens gave up 34, 30, & 42. We don’t need a crazy high scoring game to hit this teased over, a 24-21 game would get the job done. Buffalo allowed 472 yards of offense last week. The Bills are going to come out firing like they have all season and the Ravens should be able to run the ball and break big plays vs the Bills defense that allowed 122 ypg which ranked 20th in the league. Snow showers could creep in in the second half but I don’t think it will slow down these offenses. I’m feeling pretty good about 42+, I can see this game getting into the 50s or even 60s!
Cam Akers Total Rushing Yards Over (73.5) – This one makes a lot of sense and here’s why – the Rams have an injured QB and they want to keep the #1 ranked Packers offense on the sideline as much as possible. Akers carried the ball 28 times last week for 131 yards and a touchdown. He has 20+ carries in 4 of the last 5 games and he should get 20+ carries again in this matchup today. He also has carries of 10+ yards in each of his last 10 games. The Packers defense allowed 112 rushing ypg this season. I’m liking Akers to be a MAJOR part of the Rams game plan today. I also think we will see him get in the end zone.
Bills (-140) – Going with the moneyline instead of the spread here to avoid any bullshit. The Bills gave us a scare last week but they were able to get the job done. I think this game will be close but I like the Bills at home where they are 8-1 this season. The Ravens beat the Titans last week because they shut down Derrick Henry. They will have to try slowing down Josh Allen this week who has thrown for 300+ yards in 9 games this season. It’s been about 3 months since the Bills lost a game and that loss came on a Hail Mary. I do expect this game to be higher scoring than most experts think so let’s roll with Josh Allen and the high powered #2 ranked Bills offense to win this game outright and there’s no potential for a missed extra point to cost us the spread.
JK Dobbins Total Rushing Yards Over (60.5) – We took this one last week and it didn’t work out for us but it’s appealing again tonight. Last week was the first time in 7 weeks that Dobbins didn’t get 10+ carries, he had 9 for 43 yards. Before last week, Dobbins went over 60 rushing yards in 5 of his last 6 games. He’s scored a touchdown in 7 straight games. Dobbins has averaged 6 yards per carry this season so getting 10+ carries tonight should get us over 60.5. The Bills defense allowed 120 rushing yards per game this season. They will be keying in on slowing down Lamar so that should give Dobbins some opportunities in this one.
Hurricanes ML / Golden Knights Moneyline (+105) – Both of these teams are playing the same teams they played on Thursday when they each won by 3 goals. The Canes out shot the Red Wings 43-14!! The Red Wings helped that cause by being sloppy with the puck and had 16 giveaways. That loss makes the Red Wings 17-50-5 dating back to last season. Carolina should get the win. Then we have the Golden Knights who got out to a very early 2-0 lead the other night before battling with the Ducks through the 2nd period. Then they pulled away with 3 goals in the 3rd period. I like the more complete Golden Knights to get the 2 game sweep over the Ducks.
Off the record HEAT CHECK PARLAY:
Packers ML (NFL)
Bills ML (NFL)
Bruins ML (NHL)
Hurricanes ML (NHL)
Golden Knights ML (NHL)
Carlos Felipe ML (UFC)
Joaquin Buckley ML (UFC)
Santiago Ponzinibbio ML (UFC)