Our straight plays went 5-2 on the Superbowl and that makes it 13-4 in the BIG game over that last two year’s. Let’s take a look back at each straight play and I’ll give you my thought process going into it as well as what I was thinking with the way they played out.
Bucs (+144) – The public is all over the Chiefs in this game. A lot of people don’t think that the Bucs can keep up with the Chiefs offense. BUT the Bucs just beat the Packers in the NFC Championship who had the #1 ranked offense in the league this season. The Bucs also beat the Saints in the Divisional round who scored more points per game than the Chiefs this season. Looking back at the first game between these two, the Chiefs got up 27-10 but the Bucs fought back to lose 27-24. Mahomes threw for 462 yards in that game so the Bucs will need to make adjustments to slow down the Chiefs passing game. Slow down Tyreek Hill just a little, like don’t let him get 269 yards again. Turnovers will be key too. The Bucs defense ranked #2 in forced turnovers this year. Even 1 turnover could make the difference in this game. Finally, to close it out, this game should be close into the 4th quarter and there’s no player (ever) that I’d rather have my money on in the 4th quarter of a Super Bowl than Tom Brady. We’ve seen this movie before, just a different uniform. Brady gets hit 7th 💍. LFG!
Kof’s Review and Thought Process: I didn’t commit to Bucs moneyline until Friday. It was hard to ignore how hot they had been and the teams that they went on the road to beat in the playoffs but it was still the Chiefs. It was either going to be Bucs moneyline or a teaser with the Bucs at +9 and under 62. I decided to go with the moneyline for the +144 value and to ride with the man who has made me more money in my life than any other athlete, Tom Brady. A +144 winner for KofSports Nation when 65 (ish) percent of the betting world took the Chiefs. This winner gave us our 4th Super Bowl winner in the last 5 years. And also is a good example of the fact that we take underdogs when there’s value and the matchup is right.
Tyreek Hill Total Receptions Over (6.5) – Hill went OFF against the Bucs in their regular season matchup for 13 receptions, 269 yards, & 3 touchdowns. It’s safe to say that he will be a major part of the Chiefs game plan again in this game. Hill had 9 receptions in the AFC Championship and 8 in the Divisional game even though he had Chad Henne throwing to him in the second half. Mahomes also targeted Hill 16 times in last years Super Bowl. Look for him to go over 6.5 for us.
Kof’s Review and Thought Process: I thought this one was probably our best player prop after the game that Hill had against the Bucs in the regular season. I was also considering the yards and for him to score a touchdown but I’m glad we went with the receptions. It took a lot longer to hit than I thought it would! We actually got pretty lucky on this one with it hitting with 2 minutes left.
Ronald Jones Total Rushing Attempts Over (8.5) – Jones put up a dud against the Packers but he’s been trying to get over a quad injury and the cold weather may have effected him in that game. Regardless of his 16 rushing yards in the NFC Championship, he still got 10 carries. He had 13 carries the week before against the Saints. If you look at all of the games he’s played this season, he’s had 8+ carries in 13 of his 16 games (81% trend). If the Bucs game plan goes the way they want it to, they will run the ball to try and limit the amount of time that Mahomes and the powerful Chiefs offense is on the field. This one looks solid.
Kof’s Review and Thought Process: I liked both Ronald Jones props of his total rushing yards and his total rushing attempts. We haven’t had our double dips work out lately so it was always going to be one or the other. The trends of 13 of 16 games going over 8.5 carries looked pretty good to me. Even with PLAYOFF LENNY taking the lead in the Bucs backfield. It turned out to be an easy winner. We would have hit the attempts and or yards whatever we wanted. Jones looked to be healthy and he got his carries early on.
Travis Kelce To Score a Touchdown (-165) – Kelce has been a huge part of the Chiefs offense and a go to guy for Mahomes. Kelce has scored 7 touchdowns in his last 5 playoff games. He’s scored at least one touchdown in 7 of his last 8 games. He has 8 or more receptions in 9 of his last 10 games as well. Kelce has led the Chiefs in receptions in each game over their last 6 games. We took him to score in last year’s Super Bowl and we are going for it again this year!
Kof’s Review and Thought Process: He was the biggest favorite to score a touchdown in this game. Look at those trends in the write up above. This was one of my more confident picks but it didn’t work out. Who would have thought that the Chiefs wouldn’t score a single touchdown? Not me!
Mike Evans To Score a Touchdown (+105) – Brady has hit Evans for a touchdown in each of the last 2 playoff games. They also connected for 13 touchdowns in the regular season. Evans only had 3 receptions in the first meeting against the Chiefs but 2 of them were for touchdowns in the second half. Brady has targeted Evans 7+ times in 11 games this season. He’s also been a go to guy in the Red Zone. Look for Evans to score a touchdown tonight!
Kof’s Review and Thought Process: I thought this one was really good value at plus money and if I had to pick one Buc to score in this game it was either Mike Evans or PLAYOFF LENNY. Should have went with Playoff Lenny but it’s easy to say now. I wouldn’t have thought that we would see 2 touchdowns from Gronk in this game which took away an opportunity from Mike Evans.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Total Rushing Yards Over (29.5) – He’s battling back from multiple injuries (hip/ankle) but he’s had the extra time to rest and he’s been practicing in full this week. The Bucs have the best run defense in the league but 29.5 is LOW for Edwards-Helaire. I also think the Bucs are really going to focus on trying to stop the pass and that should open things up for Edwards-Helaire. He went over 29.5 in 10 of his 12 regular season games including his last game against the Bucs and averaged 61 rushing yards per game this season. He should go over 29.5 for us tonight.
Kof’s Review and Thought Process: Believe it or not, this was being considered as a JACKHAMMER. The guy was battling injuries but the 29.5 looked to be easy based on his games this season. He had time to heal up and it showed because he doubled up on his player prop. He had a 26 yard run which almost covered the prop on that one play. Shout out to Clyde for hitting this one for us.
Rob Gronkowski Total Receptions Over (2.5) – Another appealing line for Gronk here. Even though he’s only come up with 2 catches in the playoffs. But looking back to the first meeting between these two teams, Gronk led the Bucs with 106 receiving yards. He had 6 catches on 7 targets in that game. Brady targeted Gronk 11 times against this Chiefs team in the AFC Championship two years ago. Cameron Brate is dealing with a back strain and he is questionable. Add in the fact that this is probably Gronk’s last game (for real this time) on an NFL field. There’s no reason for the Bucs to hold back on his usage. Leave it all out on the field Gronk!
Kof’s Review and Thought Process: This was a ballsy pick with the lack of targets that Gronk had been getting. We took this bet a couple of times this season. You can go back and find a similar reasoning behind it each time. Brady and Gronk have that connection and he trusts him in the big moment. Gronk isn’t what he used to be but Brady to Gronk cashed in for us on the big stage. I wanted to take a stab at the Gronk TD but the receptions seemed like the easier play.
It was another successful and profitable NFL season for us. It’s always a bummer the first week without football. However, we were lucky to get a full season this year and hopefully life gets back to normal by September. We will be crushing other sports in the mean time!